Tuesday, 10 July 2007

The cat is out of the bag...

Financial Times reports that "World will face oil crunch in five years", basing this on the latest IEA Medium Term Market Report for Oil (July 2007). The even more conservative WSJ puts a slightly different spin on it: "IEA forecast underlines oil, gas supply worries".

However, even IEA's somewhat unexpected lack of faith is seen as too optimistic by some, esp. in regards to KSA ability to ramp up it's own production of oil.

So there you have it.

Demand will outstrip production c. 2010. That is 2,5 years away. Let the ramifications of that sink in for a while.

Shortages not later than 2012 according to IEA.

Beyond that. It's anybody's guess, but unless Iraq and others ramp up as hoped, after 2015 it'll be very, very hard to sustain production - not to mention actually meeting growing demand.

As to whatever all this means, it's up to you to decice. However, it is not - just another transition. Biofuels are expected to provide 1.75 million barrels / day in 2012, which is less than 2% of world total oil demand.

I repeat the old mantra: economize (esp. get out of debt), localize (esp. in regards to work, family and sustenance) and produce (esp. something of actual physical daily value).