Sunday, 2 November 2008

Anarchy in the UK

UK is in dire straits.

North Sea oil production is falling, causing a growing double deficit, both in falling exports and increasing energy imports. In addition, natural gas production is coming off a cliff. Almost all of UK's heroic climate change mitigation has been achieved by a switch from coal to natural gas. Oh well, they can always go back to coal.

Now Peak Oil Group (UK) has assessed that peaking of UK's own production and that of the world at whole is a much greater threat than terrorism. No surprise there, considering that terrorism still kills less people in UK than cars do.

"When they fail to meet demand, many countries will experience this as an energy crisis. Some will experience it as an energy famine, as producers start to withhold exports."
- Jeremy Leggett, chairman, Peak Oil Group (UK)
Add to this the fact that UK banks are extremely over-leveraged through debt which is now crumbling worldwide. The residential housing bubble is among the biggest in the whole of OECD and clearly worse than in the faltering US. As a final icing on the cake, the country produces very little, it's financial center role is now in serious doubt and it has a consumer base that is up to it's neck in debt - unable to consume anymore. Oh yes, let's not forget the recent turn into isolationism and immigration hostility.

Ingredients for a really disastrous recipe are all here. The fall of the UK in the coming two decades could be something not seen since the heydays of the 60s and the ensuing fall of the 70s.

Milton! I think thy spirit hath passed away
From these white cliffs and high-embattled towers;
This gorgeous fiery-coloured world of ours
Seems fallen into ashes dull and grey,
And the age changed unto a mimic play
Wherein we waste our else too-crowded hours:
For all our pomp and pageantry and powers
We are but fit to delve the common clay,
Seeing this little isle on which we stand,
This England, this sea-lion of the sea,
By ignorant demagogues is held in fee,
Who love her not: Dear God! is this the land
Which bare a triple empire in her hand
When Cromwell spake the word Democracy!