If Middle East goes, so goes the world...
From Spiegel:
A combination of any two countries from the above map is enough to wipe out the whole spare capacity.
Even if oil is in a parabolic trading move right now and likely to come down for a while, it doesn't meant the the problem will be over.
Until the unrest in ME starts to cool down, the prices will be fluctuating a lot.
Traders market, you have been warned.