II Interlude

Happy Holidays!

Hans Rosling - Global Health in 4 mins

Hans Rosling is our Hero:



However, it's a pity he doesn't understand the correlation AND causation between energy surplus and life expectancy.

Energy surplus means prosperity, economic growth, welfare society, less manual labour, hygiene, scientific breakthroughs, safety nets and system shock buffers.

When the energy goes into decline, much of that will go into reverse.

Most Important Lecture on Growth & Sustainability

The following lecture video of Geoffrey West (Santa Fe Institute) is crucial for understanding the process, laws and limits of socio-economic growth like human societies.

In case the embedded video does not work, you can watch the video off Yahoo Labs page at : http://labs.yahoo.com/node/274 .

In the words of Geoffrey West, "This system is destined to collapse."

Some math is included in the presentation, but not crucial for understanding the argument.

A Musical Interlude

Why Material Scarcity is an Issue for Energy scarcity

Dr André Diederen (TNO) has researched the issue of minerals scarcity and it's relevance to energy security and geopolitical stability.

Below you will find a three part presentation my Dr Diederen on the issue titled

Materials Scarcity, Managed Austerity and the Elements of Hope

Unfortunately the audio is of quite bad quality, so here's a taster of the main points in the presentation.

Most inside the earth is not producedable. Flow matters. Not stocks

Resources are not Economic reserves. Only economic reserved matter.

Metals scarcity => Wind Energy scarcity.

Scarcity for Other Alternative Energy Production Systems.

Solution: Simplify (less exotic materials) and compromise performance

Summary: Performance Maximization is Dead. Frugal Optimization is Back.

In short, there is a systemically positive feedback loop with very negative consequences between the energy and materials scarcities.

If you are a materials-wisened inventor with understanding of basic and rare earth metals, you better get started if you haven't already. Time to optimize & save.

Talking sense about Finance Bubbles, Energy, Oil & Transition

Nicole Foss of the excellent Automatic Earth blog gave a presentation recently about a Century of Challenges.

It's only available as an audio stream/mp3 file on the net, but very well worth listening to, if one is trying to wrap his/her brain around the double-headed monster that is Energy Transition & Financial Crisis.

Download the mp3 file of the presentation : Making Sense of the Financial Crisis in the Era of Peak Oil (77 MB)

Here's a short preview of five minutes. To get the slides, one can also buy a right to view the whole video at the Automatic Earth / Post Peak Education site.

Oh yes, file this under 'analytical & doomish crystal-ball gazing'.

Can Oil Production Meet Rising Global Demand?

You've heard it from the geologists, from the oil engineers and the people studying energy systems.

Now, it's time to hear it from (for) the policy wonks.

Can Oil Production Meet Rising Global Demand? 

The video, all one and a half hours of it, contains multiple testimonies on Capitol Hill about Peak Oil and the coming oil crunch.

Will this have an impact?

Hardly, as the Department of Energy and Military Peak Oil Reports show, people who need to know already know. People who don't know, this is too difficult a subject emotionally for them to grasp.

Also, if you view the audience in the Q&A session there are no congresspeople and certainly no senators.

If you only view one snippet, start at 00:45:00 with Bob Hirsch. Runs for about 10 minutes. Well worth the time as a good summary, if you are new to the subject.

Question Economics Growth

From the everl-abundant and constantly-giving source that is TED:

Tim Jackson 'Economic Reality Check'

"So we're caught in a kind of trap. It's a dilemma, a dilemma of growth. We can't live with it; we can't live without it. Trash the system or crash the planet. It's a tough choice."

Chavez understands Peak Oil

Whether you like him or not, Hugo Chavez is still in control of Venezueala, even after the latest election. Moreso, he appears to really understand Peak Oil, which is one of the reasons he appears to be hanging onto Venezuelan oil.

Real News reports:



The mistake Chavez did? Buying all-in to the Peak oil in 2008 and thinking that no other reason except constant demand fall could factor for the high prices.

Well, come 2008, financial crisis, reduction of the speculative and hedging positions in the oil markets as well as abrupt reduction in demand, and the price plunged.

Lesson? Even if you discount the future, don't discount it too deeply too soon.

The Bet that Ruined the World: Simon vs. Erlich