Thursday 30 October 2008

Curiouser and curiouser!

After yesterday's FT leak, IEA responds with a rebuttal:
"The Financial Times carried a cover page article this morning and a second article on page 4 allegedly reporting on the findings of the forthcoming WEO 2008. This article was drafted without any consultation with the IEA. It appears to be based on an early version of a draft from several months ago that was subsequently revised and updated. The numbers in the article can be misleading and should not be quoted or considered to be official IEA results. We are dismayed that such a comprehensive and important IEA report was made public without our input and verification."
Now this is getting really interesting.

I find it hard to believe IEA pulled the numbers out of their hats for the draft and now entered the real numbers in the final report. Sounds more like political pressure. I wonder how they even felt they had to reply.

Time will tell, but for sure near oil future is still looking muddled to politicians and "experts" who have not studied the production development data.

Oil went up a measly $4 yesterday and it is impossible to say if it was due to Fed rate cuts, FT news or something else.

However, one thing looks to be fairly certain. The coming real economy recession will be long, hard and markets are discounting that factor in oil prices.

Wednesday 29 October 2008

All hope abandon ye who enter here

The November IEA oil report has leaked out. FT has a copy. It's does not make pretty reading:
"The natural annual rate of output decline is 9.1 per cent, the International Energy Agency says in its annual report, the World Energy Outlook, the Financial Times reported. "
That means halving of the existing oil production available within a bit more than seven years. By 2015.
"Even with investment, output will slide by 6.4 percent a year, it said. "
That means halving of the all existing and planned oil production capacity within 11 years or so, assuming a normal oil sector planning horizon of c. 5-7 years forward.

This is radical.

If you do not understand how grave this is, there is nothing we can do for you.

The only glimmer of hope is the financial crisis and the global recession now unfolding:
"The IEA expected oil consumption in 2030 to reach 106.4 million barrels a day, down from last year's forecast of 116.3 million, said the newspaper.

It said the projections could yet be revised lower because the draft report was written a month ago, before the global financial crisis deepened"

Anything beyond 110Mbpd is a fool's dream and I'm sure even IEA knows this. Projected oil demand growth has been pushed down by the recession. Let's hope it's a long and severe one, that makes us think hard and long about energy decision and the near future.

Be prepared and good luck.

Through me you pass into the city of woe:
Through me you pass into eternal pain:
Through me among the people lost for aye.

Justice the founder of my fabric mov'd:
To rear me was the task of power divine,
Supremest wisdom, and primeval love.

Before me things create were none, save things
Eternal, and eternal I endure.
All hope abandon ye who enter here.

Such characters in colour dim I mark'd
Over a portal's lofty arch inscrib'd:
Whereat I thus: Master, these words import.

Thursday 23 October 2008

The Crash Course

Chris Martenson's Crash Course on Environment, Economy and Energy is now complete.

The Crash Course is a remarkable set of videos with incredible explanatory power of various interlinked concepts of money, inflation, debt, energy, peak oil, consumption, economic growth, environment, raw materials, climate change, etc.

If you don't have time to watch all of them, and want the exec summary, just watch episodes 19 and 20.

Even if you don't agree with or believe in everything in the videos you will learn new and important things.

Friday 17 October 2008

Which one should be the next president of the USA?

We rest our case.

Saturday 11 October 2008

We love/hate Americans

They can imagine and produce 'call to arms' type adverts like this (even if a little silly and completely propagandist):

But then they can't run the advert on major broadcast networks and in the end they actually do nothing about it, except maybe bitch.

You think running ads or writing blog posts is going to change the world?

Us neither.

The world is about doing. Do something. That changes the world.

We are doing, thus less blogging.

Sunday 5 October 2008

The Financial Crisis - Summing it up

Although, in due fairness that should be extended to the Main Street as well.

Then again, maybe a more responsible advice would sound more like this:

"You blew it up, so now you should clean it up like responsible adults."

Fat chance. So we vote for "Jump!"