Tuesday 29 April 2008

Energy in pictures: Fossil vs Alternative energies

A sobering image from Vaclav Smil's article '21st Century Energy: Some sobering throughts' in OECD Observer 12/2006.

And another one about power density from the same source:

Saturday 26 April 2008

Screw Food, We need Oil!

Financial Times had an interesting piece about IEA warning that OECD countries should not
back off on biofuels:

"Biofuel production is critical to meeting current and future fuel demand in spite of its possible role in driving up food prices, the west's energy watchdog has warned.

The warning comes as the backlash from rocketing food prices has increased pressure on the European Union and the US to review their support of fuel made from crops.

The views of the IEA carry significant weight in Europe and the US and policymakers have warned that the debate about biofuels should take into account its implications for energy markets and climate change. The issue has been put on the agenda for the next G8 summit in July."

So, there you have it. Screw you guys, we need this food for our cars.

Oil in Pictures: Net Oil Exports 4-2008

Friday 25 April 2008

Russia Peaks + Saudi Caps Future + Coal Rises = Time Runs Out?

Steve Andrews and Randy Udall via ASPO-USA:

Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah said he had ordered some new oil discoveries left untapped to preserve oil wealth in the world's top exporter for future generations

"When there were some new finds, I told them, 'no, leave it in the ground, with grace from god, our children need it'," King Abdullah said…

Saudi production capacity stands at around 11.3 million bpd, and is scheduled to rise to 12.5 million bpd next year.

We agree. This is the big one. Combine that with the fact that Russia's oil production has most likely peaked:

Ray Leonard (now at Kuwait Energy) used to work for Yukos and tells his take on why Russia is declining in oil production now and whether it is a final geological peak. A good read.

That is what we call the double-whammy. World's biggest producer-exporter of crude oil and the one with the biggest reserves.

Things do not look good for the coming years. Time to dig up the blueprints for that Plan B and see what we can still implement. Time is running short, perhaps even on the climate side of things:

“If there’s no action before 2012, that’s too late. What we do in the next two to three years will determine our future. This is the defining moment.” - Rajendra Pachauri, IPCC
Peak Oil and Climate Change decisions unfolding parallel at roughly the same time, with coal starting to make a comeback (except it never really did go away), regardless of dire warnings.

Somebody could say that it remains a mystery why humans remain so over-optimistic and complacent when facing issues of this magnitude. Then again, it's not a mystery. We just discount everything.

Monday 14 April 2008

Video: Expected Economic Impact of Energy Downturn

Via TOD by Gail the Actuary:

Good basic information, even if you don't agree with all the conclusions.