Friday, 25 April 2008

Russia Peaks + Saudi Caps Future + Coal Rises = Time Runs Out?

Steve Andrews and Randy Udall via ASPO-USA:

Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah said he had ordered some new oil discoveries left untapped to preserve oil wealth in the world's top exporter for future generations

"When there were some new finds, I told them, 'no, leave it in the ground, with grace from god, our children need it'," King Abdullah said…

Saudi production capacity stands at around 11.3 million bpd, and is scheduled to rise to 12.5 million bpd next year.

We agree. This is the big one. Combine that with the fact that Russia's oil production has most likely peaked:

Ray Leonard (now at Kuwait Energy) used to work for Yukos and tells his take on why Russia is declining in oil production now and whether it is a final geological peak. A good read.

That is what we call the double-whammy. World's biggest producer-exporter of crude oil and the one with the biggest reserves.

Things do not look good for the coming years. Time to dig up the blueprints for that Plan B and see what we can still implement. Time is running short, perhaps even on the climate side of things:

“If there’s no action before 2012, that’s too late. What we do in the next two to three years will determine our future. This is the defining moment.” - Rajendra Pachauri, IPCC
Peak Oil and Climate Change decisions unfolding parallel at roughly the same time, with coal starting to make a comeback (except it never really did go away), regardless of dire warnings.

Somebody could say that it remains a mystery why humans remain so over-optimistic and complacent when facing issues of this magnitude. Then again, it's not a mystery. We just discount everything.