Heinberg - The Bigger Picture of Energy Depletion

Video education series continues.

This is required watching for anybody wanting to understand energy-economy-prosperity links and the overall picture of our predicament. Videos 10 minutes each.

91 - 86 - 90

8 minutes:


The numbers apply to other countries beyond USA. 86Mbd is incidentally the same amount of oil flow that many drilling engineers and now many oil analysts are saying is the ceiling.

Doom Porn #2 - Michael Ruppert & Collapse

Michael Ruppert is a controversial figure and it is advised to take anything he says with a hefty dosage of salt. With that said, he can be an effective conveyor of doom porn and once one gets past the emotional reaction, it is possible to peek into possible worlds - even if highly improbable.

Peak Oil Studies Galore

While the rest of the world worries about the strength of this recovery (of gluttonous over-consumption), the researchers have been busy. Looking at something that might kill the recovery for several years, if not decades to come.

Peak Oil Report - Bristol City Countil

"An increasing number of experts and commentators warn that the era of cheap oil

is over and that an oil crunch is likely within the next decade. An oil crunch would fundamentally threaten the way our city operates with challenges to transport, healthcare, food distribution, social cohesion, public services and other sectors."

Heads in the Sand: Governments Ignore the Oil Supply Crunch - Global Witness

"The priority recommendation is the need for international recognition of the underlying fundamental problems that equate to an imminent oil supply crunch. It is hard to see how efective solutions can be developed until there is widespread recognition of the problem."

The Global Oil Depletion Report - UK Energy Research Center

"we suggest that a peak of conventional oil production before 2030 appears likely and there is a significant risk of a peak before 2020. Given the lead times required to both develop substitute fuels and improve energy efficiency, this risk needs to be given serious consideration."

Translation: get off yer arse and start working towards solutions!

Preparing for A Post Peak Living

Three videos, c. 10 mins. Each. Highly recommended for newcomers or as a refresh on Peak Oil and it's potential effects:

Preparing for a Post Peak Life - Part 1 - The Story of Oil

Par 2 - Rebuttals

Part 3 - Impact and Response

News to Laugh About

Energy and climate crisis reading can be a grim affair - with a good reason. Still, it's sometimes useful to laugh a bit. With that in mind, here are some recent news articles that should create laughter in those who've done their homework.

• EIA Stunner: By year's end, we'll be 8.5% below 2005 levels of CO2 - Halfway to Climate Bill's 2020 target (Celsias)
  
  This is great news! Now let's remember how we got that reduction: deepest worldwide depression since the 30s, a complete crash of worldwide shipping, more than half of the airlines stumbling towards bankruptcy, more than hundred million new unemployed, and near complete stop in new industrial investments. What was the response to all this: PRINT MORE MONEY to boost the economy. How bad do you think we're going to have to have it, till we get to our reduction target (-80% by 2050)? Any politicians willing to put that on their agenda. Thought so.
  
  
• Stern: Rich nations will have to forget about growth to stop climate change (Guardian)
  
  "At some point we would have to think about whether we want future growth. We don't have to do that now.". Not now, tomorrow. No need to worry, carry on BAU. Yeah, riiiiight. Where did one hear that before? Thankfully USA's industry doesn't need to become 100% carbon-emission neutral by 2050 (not 80% cut, but 100% cut). Fortunately there are enough carbon permissions in the world to be sold, so that developing worlds can increase their carbon emissions. It's nice that the economists don't have the discount rates all wrong for their cost calculations. Sigh, we're so relieved. Thank God there's always tomorrow.
  
  
• World's climate could cool first, warm later (New Scientist)
  
  Oh, the irony. This happens and some peppy and over-enthusiastic conservative from Competitive Enterprise Institute of America becomes the next Anti-Gore and declares AGW solved and get's a faux-Nobel prize on economics. The world is saved, yet again.
  
  
• OPEC says oil not to blame for climate change (Reuters)
  
  Is there anything to be added to a declaration that is almost a parody of itself?
  
  
• World Bank spends billions on coal-fired power stations (Times)
  
  Hellooooooo! What did everybody expect? That they stop funding profitable energy enterprises? That we stop using coal and the last man turn off all the lights?
  
  
• Official: Global oil peak soon!
  
  First it was 'Never!'. Then it was 50 years from now. Then 30. Then 20. Now 10. BTW, some smart analysts, oil companies and banks are already saying "Now". Hey, let's all wait for the announcement "Oil Peak was 20 years ago" and see how much time we have to prepare after that.

If all of the above seems a bit harsh, mean or even unfair, that's because it's supposed to be. That's really the only way to laugh about this all. And that's what we all need every now and then.

Petropolis - Tar Sands from Above

Check out a trailer / slideshow for a documentary 'Petropolis', which shows the size and scale of the burgeoning Alberta tar sands industry.

We've got plenty more of this coming in the future as we move from crude and condensates to non-conventional oil sources, including tar sands and oil shale.

Looks pretty nice, doesn't it? Surely the future dystopian steampunk movies will be shot on location in abandoned Alberta open pit tar sand mines.

A new proposal: change McCain's 'drill, baby drill!' to 'Mine, baby Mine!'

Dennis Meadows on Limits to Growth & Solving Problems

Most people who talk about Limits to growth have never read the book that started it all 37 years ago. Most people who deride it, have not understood the arguments (or read the book) and are guilty of straw man argumentation. So, why not let Dennis L. Meadows one of the authors of the original book spell it out again in his commemorative lecture for the Japan Prize in 2009.

There are a few gold nuggets in his speech about our predicament and our ability to solve difficult problems that have a changing evaluation horizon. Short version: doesn't look good in the short term, but in the long term things might turn ok.

Doom porn #1 - Dan Miller - A Really Inconvenient Truth

Starting off with the much asked for doomer porn series is Dan Miller with his talk titled "A Really Inconvenient Truth". Apologies in advance to Dan Miller, who is by no means a doomer nor is his intentions to frighten people. Just tell it like it is and then work to find the solutions - both of which he's doing himself.

With that said, here's an hour worth of inconvenience for all of us on why IPCC estimates are actually the best case scenario and why it's unlikely that we'll end up in the best case scenario, but in something far worse.

What does this have to do with energy? Energy is food we eat (meat), mobility that moves us and our globalized stuff around (oil), our buildings (embedded energy) and thus, greenhouse gas emissions. Once oil and natural gas start going, what's left is coal and that's far, far dirtier in terms of climate change than the previous two. And that's the good stuff. Wait till we get to tar sands and oil shale. All of which won't be enough to mitigate the fall, but will still be burned and thus released into the atmosphere with no abandon.

This is why peak oil is such an important issue. It brings climate change related issues fast forward from the future to today - or actually, yesterday. We should have solved this stuff 15 years ago. We more than likely don't have till 2020 to start fixing, certainly not till 2050.

As you watch the video, ask yourself:

• How do I feel?
• Why do I feel like this?
• Is there anything I can do to this emotion?
• Is there anything I can do to stop the things causing this?

Are we close(r) to a tipping point?

Tipping points have been discussed for the past years in many different contexts. There are those optimists believing in consciousness/awareness tipping points in humans around the planet - finally resulting in decisive and synchronized action on all the issues we face.

Then there are the scientists, who actually study the issue of tipping points and try to figure out if we can predict them with any useful likelihood before they actually happen. A case in point is a recent paper by Scheffer et al in Nature: “Early Warning Signals for Critical Transitions” (Nature, 3 Sept 2009, 461: 53-59).

"Complex dynamical systems, ranging from ecosystems to financial markets and the climate, can have tipping points at which a sudden shift to a contrasting dynamical regime may occur. Although predicting such critical points before they are reached is extremely difficult, work in different scientific fields is now suggesting the existence of generic early-warning signals that may indicate for a wide class of systems if a critical threshold is approaching."

In short: systems science based on computational models combining findings from physics and other natural science have uncovered that the climate and financial system may be heading for chaotic times.

In plain English: the shit just might the hit the proverbial fan soon.

Of course, it may just be millenial madness and a preliminary finding that turns out to be a fluke.

However, the squealing of the systems is clearly audible as we speak:

• Sea level rise: It's worse than we thought
• Study Finds More Evidence Rapid Arctic Warming Isn't Natural
• Geo-engineering may be the only choice for survival
• Methane Gas Spewing Into The Ocean
• Arctic thaw threatens much of world (WWF Report)
• World heading for climate 'abyss': UN chief
• Even Slow Warming Could Halve Crop Yields
• "Code Red" for Great Barrier Reef
• World Ocean Temperatures Hottest On Record
• Military Study Stresses Security Threats of Climate Change
• IEA warns: oil supplies are running out fast
• Swedish Minister: We are Peak Oil - Industrial Agriculture is not sustainable

It's the same old story - on repeat.

When is it time for you and me to stop flying, stop driving that big car, stop eating meat, stop consuming like it's end of the world? If your first reaction is an excuse, a refusal or a denial - don't fret, it's only human and it will pass.

Still, it is fare to ask what kind of wake up signals do we require? Al Gore once again asks the same question (from 8:30 onwards).

"Didn't you notice the entire North Polar ice cap was melting? What were you all doing? Watching the American Idol?" - Al Gore, August 2009

So let's all turn on the TV, tune out. We all dare ourselves.