Tuesday, 23 October 2007

ASPO 2007 presentations

ASPO 6 (cork, Ireland) and ASPO USA 2007 (Houston, USA) are now over. You can find most of the presentations for the conferences at the respective web sites. For those who don't know, these are the two major 'open to public' Peak Oil conferences that deal with facts of the reality and peer discussion.


ASPO Ireland has also a DVD of all the ASPO 6 Conference presentations for sale.

If you are in a hurry, here's a quick rundown of some of the presentations based on their approach:

Consumption & Production forecasts + Peak Timing
Summary: Non-FSU non-OPEC (sic) has peaked. FSU to peak in 10-15 years (?). OPEC data still very unclear, but may be close to peaking (or not). Global peak 2011-2017?

OPEC & Growing consumption in Producing nations
Summary: Available oil will be reduced faster than geological depletion occurs due to oil exporting nations using more themselves and starting to ration production (in order to sustain a longer production).

Summary: Coal is the major problem. If we turn to that after oil, pretty much all climate bets are off (including the most optimistic ones). This comes at a time when Tim Flannery reports elsewhere that the world may have surpassed c. 450 ppm of CO2 already in 2005. That was not supposed to happen for another 10-15 years - the time we were supposed to use for radical CO2 emission reductions...

Economics & PO
Summary: The actual effects of peak oil depend a lot on the shape of the peak and plans in place. However, regardless of the shape/plans, the mitigation is not going to be easy: hard choices ahead.

Alternative & Renewable fuels
Summary: Do NOT scale fast or high enough, but will be produced, even if some of them might be energy or climate losers.

Nuclear power & Electricity
Summary: Nuclear electricity production share has actually gone down, not up. Fusion energy has been and still looks to be "50 years away". Oil is liquid (energy source), electricity is a transport system (energy vector). Nuclear cannot replace oil in a short timespan (20 years).
Nuclear power will reach a (new) renaissance and take us into the next golden cleaenergy age, through the fusion of oil and nuclear industries. It all depends on who you believe.

Planning, Response & Restructuring
Summary: Mitigation is possible at many levels. Requires a lot of political work, investments and time. USA looks to be far worse off than Europe, due to very high oil use and car dependency with very low mass transit usage.

There are many others in addition to the ones linked above. Go to the presentation folders linked first, to find them all.

On a related note, David Strahan (of 'The Last Oil Shock' fame) interviewed Robert Hirsch on the economic effects of Peak oil and responses (incl. rationing) with the title 'Peak Oil means Peak Economy' (mp3). Well worth listening.