Monday, 15 December 2008

IEA: Global Oil Peak in 2020

Uh-oh... this was unexpected. The party line has been broken:

"Global oil production will peak much earlier than expected amid a collapse in petroleum investment due to the credit crunch, one of the world's foremost experts has revealed.

Fatih Birol, chief economist to the International Energy Agency, told the Guardian that conventional crude output could plateau in 2020, a development that was "not good news" for a world still heavily dependent on petroleum.

Three years ago the Paris-based organisation still denied there was any fundamental threat to the world's petroleum economy."

What is the party line in the rapidly sinking UK?

"The government does not feel the need to hold contingency plans specifically for the eventuality of crude-oil supplies peaking between now and 2020."

Oh, how you will learn the might of the reality. George Monbiot's take on the situation is blunt:

"Around 2020. That casts the issue in quite a different light. Birol's date, if correct, gives us about 11 years to prepare. If the Hirsch report is right, we have already missed the boat."

I'm afraid both Monbiot and IEA are optimistic. Oil will peak way before 2020, unless we continue in worldwide depression for the next 10 years.

Godspeed. We're all going to need it.