Wednesday, 11 November 2009

World Energy Outlook 2009

The yearly report from the OECD energy watchdog International Energy Agency is out. It is called World Energy Outlook.

Here are some key points of interest from the exec summary (full report still under scrutiny):

Coal use expected to grow enormously - oil & gas as well

Problem is - we don't know where the oil & gas are!

Sine financial crisis investments in finding & developing oil are shrinking

So we will use LOTS more coal resulting in LOTS more CO2

So the only option is to go on a huge efficiency binge

So, if you are an investor and something like the above comes to pass (unlikely, but possible), keep on piling on oil till roughly 2015 as we'll get our next oil crunch by then, unless the economy goes south again. After 2015, start piling up on efficiency plays and lots more on coal. Biofuels will be a crutch, but will probably fail royally sometime before 2020-2025 due to thermodynamic stupidity.

More when the final report is out and fully analysed.