Friday, 12 February 2010

WSJ wakes up - how long till the rest catch up?

"Get ready for a new global "crunch"--the rapid depletion of oil resources. Government and industry need to act now". - Wall Street Journal, 11.02.2010

Many people must have choked on their frapuccino yesterday, checking in dismay whether they were really reading Wall Street Journal or not.

Yes, they were.

Richard 'Virgin' Branson is also publicly voicing his opinion on the same issue: oil crunch in the next 5 years. Of course, Branson avoids the Peak issue, he merely talks about the coming supply/demand crunch. IF the economy recovers by then.

Now, it could all be a cynical ploy to pump more money into energy sector, alternatives, oil sands, nuclear and what not.

After all, business people are eager to ride on a bandwagon if there's money in it.

And this it how it should be: accepting the risks, noting that something must be done, rolling up the sleeves and doing something.

Yes, it is highly possible that whatever that something done eventually ends up to be - that it will not be enough.

But anything is better than nothing.

Wild guess, how many years till the reality of the scale, enormousness of IEA's investment requirements forecasts and basic understanding of exponential decline rates sinks in?

Give it two years, max. Unless there's a W second dip in the global economy, in which everything else becomes a secondary sideshow and is easily forgotten.

Here's hoping for the best and fearing for the worst.