Thursday, 17 February 2011

Oil Industry Insider: Peak Oil 2015-2016, $300USD oil by 2020

Charles T. Maxwell at Aspo

Charles T. Maxwell, a veteran and a highly respected long-time expert of the oil markets, was recently interviewed for the Barron's Magazine on oil supply. He had this to say on the supply of oil:

"[Oil production] will be a little bumpy in 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018. But by 2020, the first signs will become very evident that we can't go any higher than that in production."
A bumpy plateau by 2015, basically. As for the decline, he's optimistic about the production not starting to decline until 2020.

And more on oil price:

"Then it goes to $95 in 2012 and $115 in 2013. The following year, 2014, we see the price going to $140 a barrel, followed by $180 in 2015. And then, by 2020, it's at $300, or roughly $225 discounted back to the present." 
"By 2020, I'm looking for about $300 a barrel, which is closer to $225 a barrel in today's dollars."

As for the impact on the economy, he's much more optimistic:

"Strangely enough, I don't think that it would bring the economy down. Rather, it is the suddenness of change that does that." 
"On a more gradual scale, and giving the effect of inflation its due, we will probably simply walk away from two-tenths or three-tenths or four-tenths of a percentage point of potential gross-domestic-product growth, which we will give up by being caught in this energy vise. But the world economy will advance, and it won't be brought down by this."

It is needless to say that The Energy Standard views Maxwell as a hopeless optimist. The world needs them, but they are rarely right. Here's hoping he's right this time around.