Thursday, 6 November 2008

IEA predicts oil price to rebound to $100 - $200

Well that didn't take long. FT reports again:

“While market imbalances could temporarily cause prices to fall back, it is becoming increasingly apparent that the era of cheap oil is over [.] Current global trends in energy supply and consumption are patently unsustainable [.]

Oil prices will rebound to more than $100 a barrel as soon as the world economy recovers, and will exceed $200 by 2030."
So much for going back to the good old days. The funny bit is of course the $200 by 2030. Sure, but we are going to be seeing that a lot sooner than that. I could have made an equally useless prediction: $300 oil by 2100. How's that. Base inflation alone will drive oil to $200 by 2030, not to mention all the shortages in availability. $200 might well be reality by 2011-2015, depending on how recession lasts.

This is our last wake up call. The final recession before the big one to do any meaningful infrastructure work, if any.

Now the markets know. The message has been hammered in. If anybody still believes oil futures prices on their own are a solid indicator of peak oil or lack of peaking, they are sorely mistaken.

We a bit of bad luck we might even get a price rise before we get out of this recession. Stagflation after stagdeflation, anyone?