Tuesday, 2 December 2008

An explanation, a summary and a joke

The forced hiatus of The Energy Standard has been caused by the relentless stream of necktie damage flowing our way from New York and London financial centers.

Being forced to understand the alphabet soup and where the world is headed has not left much time for energy analysis not to mention writing energy posts.

That's the explanation. Now for the summary:

  • Peak Oil is not dead - geological fundamentals do not change because world finance throws a fit.

  • World consumption of oil will decrease for the first time in eons, say the forecasts. If this is true, buckle up, it's really going to be an ugly economic scenario unfolding next year and after. If that much wasn't clear to you by now.

  • Oil prices? Yes, there was a speculative premium and yes, there's now a speculative depression in the price. It could go down to $40, but it won't stay there for long unless the whole world economy melts down completely. Lesson: do not use price alone to predict anything about geological availability of oil.

The joke?

I hear there is a new edition out of a risk management bible for the financial industry, 'Value & Risk Management - A Guide to Best practice'. Here's a summary of the contents in the update edition:

Past performance is not a guarantee of future profits.

Not laughing? Us neither.